Dogs of the Future

By studying the annual statistics gathered by the French Kennel Club, we can identify current breeding trends and, from this information, try to determine what dogs will look like in the future. Registered births by breed indicate a trend away from the most well known breeds in favor of increasingly more original breeds.

Exaggerated Type

This quest for originality and extreme types is a selection technology that has been developed primarily in the United States and England. The result is the creation of specimens with exaggerated type, such as Bull Dogs, whose faces are now so pushed in that they must be born by cesarean and can breathe only if their mouth is open. Labradors are predisposed to obesity. Dachshunds are getting longer. Shar-Pei's have more natural folds in the skin. German Shepherds have increasingly sloped croups. Small breeds are getting smaller and are now referred to as Toys and Miniatures. On the other hand, large breeds are growing increasingly large. These trends seem to leave only mutts in the medium size category. We see a tendency to push the extremes and ignore those that fall in the middle.

Genetic Influence for Custom Dogs

Morphing is a computer technique that could perhaps serve as an analogy to demonstrate how we can predict these trends, taking into account changes in lifestyles and progress in genetic manipulation. Lifestyle changes follow urban development. A decrease in the number of farm dogs can be anticipated with a corresponding increase in the number of pets, as a result of telecommuting becoming more commonplace and improved connectivity. However, it is difficult to predict what dogs will look like since people's preferences change as fashion evolves.

If current trends continue, we can expect an increase in the number of breeds. Future dogs will be anything but average! Coat color and texture genetics are advancing by leaps and bounds; therefore it will likely be possible to "genetically color" dogs. The mechanics of genetics will be more fully understood. In fact, we estimate a canine genome map will be achieved within twenty years. As a result, it will be possible to eliminate genetic faults and reduce chance in breeding, meeting demand for increasingly original breeds.

The development of artificial insemination, using refrigerated or frozen sperm, will eliminate the need to bring animals together. Borders and quarantine will disappear as two animals selected from a catalog on the Internet are "virtually" mated. The semen of a prime stud dog could even be preserved to impregnate a brood bitch after the death of the stud. However, these techniques will never be as successful in dogs as they have been in cattle since the concentration of sperm in canine ejaculate is much lower than in that of steers.

It is possible fewer dogs will be abandoned in the future. But these "made-to-order" dogs of the future will look less and less like wild dogs. Future dogs may look so different that their wild cousins may no longer even recognize them!

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